Spanish intelligence agencies have detected a troubling rise in jihadist activity across the Sahel region of Africa, particularly in the triangle formed by Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. These agencies warn that the area is becoming a safe haven for terrorist organizations—chiefly Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State—which now pose a growing threat to Western interests, including Spain.
According to La Vanguardia, which cited intelligence sources, several radical leaders linked to the Polisario Front have ascended to senior positions within the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP). The report described these individuals as a genuine threat due to their ability to potentially orchestrate attacks inside Europe.
The intelligence data, as reported by La Vanguardia, points to around ten Sahrawis—all born in the Tindouf camps under Polisario control in Algeria—who had previously participated in the "Holidays in Peace" program. This initiative allowed them to spend summers with Spanish families, far from the harsh conditions of life in the desert camps.
Security officials emphasized that these individuals possess a high level of fluency in Spanish, making them more dangerous if used in terrorist operations on European soil. Their familiarity with Spanish culture and early contact with host families during childhood could give them an operational advantage.
The same sources, as cited by La Vanguardia, believe these extremist leaders may seek to inspire "lone wolves" to carry out attacks in Europe, particularly if European countries intervene on behalf of regimes targeted by jihadist groups in the Sahel.
The Spanish newspaper noted a recent surge in terrorist attacks on strategic camps in southern Mali and northern Burkina Faso, coinciding with the Eid al-Adha holiday. This uptick has prompted European security units to raise their alert levels amid fears of further security collapse in the region.
The report warned that terrorist groups now possess the operational capability to threaten the capitals—Bamako, Ouagadougou, and Niamey. However, their current focus remains on securing control of rural areas as a prelude to eventual assaults on major cities, echoing scenarios previously seen in Damascus and Kabul.
Intelligence sources cited in the report noted that these groups have sent a clear message to Europe: “This is our war. If you intervene, you become a legitimate target.” This warning prompted the European Union to withdraw its forces from the region last year, including the final contingent of Spanish troops.
Despite Spain’s military pullout, the Ministry of Defense, under Margarita Robles, opposed the decision, viewing a complete withdrawal from the Sahel as a strategic mistake that could allow other powers—such as Russia through its Wagner militia or the so-called Africa Corps—to expand their influence.
The report offered some reassurance by highlighting internal leadership crises within both Al-Qaeda and ISWAP in the Sahel, which have weakened their recruitment and propaganda capabilities—particularly after the fall of the Islamic State’s caliphate in Syria. As a result, the groups now rely on external proxies to disseminate their radical ideology.
Nevertheless, these groups still face major logistical obstacles in deploying fighters to Europe. According to the Spanish report, they often resort to human trafficking networks to smuggle combatants among irregular migrants—a tactic fraught with risks and potential setbacks.
Still, the threat remains, particularly if these jihadist organizations shift tactics and refocus on targeting the West. In that case, migrant routes along the Mauritanian coast could serve as a gateway for extremists to reach Europe—especially given that most boats arriving in the Canary Islands currently depart from those coasts.In this context, observers are raising serious questions about the Polisario Front's possible role in fostering a breeding ground for extremism in the Sahel.
With mounting intelligence pointing to connections between Polisario members and jihadist groups, the door appears increasingly open to the possibility of the group being classified as a terrorist organization in the near future.
