Morocco’s economic growth is expected to pick up slightly in the first quarter of 2026, reaching 4.2% year on year, compared with 4% in the previous quarter, according to new forecasts by the High Commission for Planning (HCP).
In its latest economic outlook, the HCP said the projected improvement would be driven mainly by agriculture and the services sector, which together are expected to contribute about 2.9 percentage points to overall growth.
The report, which reviews key economic indicators observed in the third quarter of 2025 and estimates developments in the final quarter of the year, also provides forward-looking projections for early 2026.
The construction sector is forecast to maintain growth of around 3.4%, following a slowdown at the end of 2025. The HCP attributed that earlier deceleration to temporary disruptions linked to adverse weather conditions in December.
By contrast, growth in the manufacturing industry is expected to remain moderate, at around 3.1%. The sector continues to be more exposed to fluctuations in external demand, particularly pressures affecting Morocco’s export markets.
According to the HCP, the national economy at the start of 2026 will evolve in a context marked by both external and structural shocks. Continued weakness in European demand, combined with higher US tariff duties and intensifying Chinese competition, is expected to keep weighing on Moroccan exports.
Despite these constraints, the HCP noted that domestic activity, especially in agriculture and services, should help sustain overall growth momentum in the short term.
