A public opinion poll conducted by the Spanish Royal Elcano Institute has revealed a significant increase in the perception among Spaniards of Morocco as the greatest external threat to their country, surpassing both Russia and the United States, according to statistics published Monday in Spanish newspapers.
According to the same sources, the results showed that 55 percent of those surveyed consider the Kingdom of Morocco to be the primary threat to Spain, while 33 percent cited Russia, and 19 percent pointed to the United States.
Spanish media noted that this figure marks a continued upward trend that began in 2021, when only 35 percent of Spaniards viewed Morocco as a threat. That figure rose to 49 percent in 2024, before reaching 55 percent in the latest poll, which was conducted between May 19 and 29, 2025, and included a sample of 1,000 individuals from across Spain’s regions, including the occupied cities of Ceuta and Melilla.
According to the poll report cited in the Spanish press, fears surrounding Morocco have overtaken those related to Russia, despite the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine for more than three years and NATO's dramatic policy shift toward Moscow. This public trend, according to the report, reflects an absence of clear and immediate threats in the minds of Spanish citizens—except for those posed by Morocco.
The reasons behind these fears, according to Spanish media citing the report, stem from previous tensions between Madrid and Rabat, particularly the 2021 incident when Moroccan authorities allegedly allowed a wave of irregular migrants to cross into Ceuta, described as part of a "hybrid pressure strategy." However, the subsequent shift in the position of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s government—announcing support for Morocco’s autonomy plan for Western Sahara—helped reduce tensions to some extent, without halting the rising perception of Morocco as a threat.
The report also revealed that concerns about Morocco are not evenly distributed across the political spectrum, with 56 percent of right-wing voters viewing Morocco as a threat, compared to only 29 percent of left-wing voters and 38 percent of centrist voters.
Commenting on the findings, researcher Ignacio Molina—one of the contributors to the report—told El País that Morocco is perceived by a significant portion of Spaniards as an adversary "with a hostile rhetorical tone," referring to Rabat's historical claims over Ceuta and Melilla.
He added that a sense of isolation is growing among Spaniards when it comes to Morocco, as the country is not considered a threat covered by NATO’s defense framework, unlike Russia. This, he said, reinforces anxiety among segments of the right that believe Morocco continually tests the red lines of bilateral relations.
Meanwhile, the report highlighted a notable increase in the number of Spaniards who now view the United States as a threat. That figure jumped from just 5 percent in 2024 to 19 percent in 2025, coinciding with Donald Trump’s return to the White House and the fears associated with tariff impositions and political isolationism.
